SMM3 20 month news: since mid-February, the price of medium and heavy rare earths has continued to rise, as of March 19, dysprosium oxide mainstream 136-1.4 million yuan / ton, a monthly increase of nearly 13%, terbium oxide to 305-3.1 million yuan / ton, a monthly increase of nearly 4%. Medium and heavy rare earths have been propped up by multiple positive factors, and SMM believes the rally is mainly due to expectations of tighter supply of medium and heavy rare earths. These include factors such as the possible re-ban on imports of Myanmar mines after May and the downward adjustment of the first batch of rare earth targets in 2019 over the same period.
Myanmar may impose a total ban on imports of mines
In early November, Myanmar began banning Chinese companies from transporting auxiliary materials for rare earth mining. On November 3, Yunnan Tengchong Customs banned the import of all Burmese resource goods into China, including rare earth minerals. On December 14, Tengchong Customs cleared the rare earth mine in Myanmar for a period of five months. In addition, customs data show that mixed rare earth carbonate imports in January 2019 were less than half of those imported in 2018. A total of 1480 tons of mixed rare earths carbonate were imported in January, down 58 per cent from the same period last year, mainly due to a sharp decline in imports from Myanmar, which fell 67 per cent from 2938 tons in 2018 to 963t.
According to the SMM survey, dysprosium and terbium varieties are expected to be affected by the expected restrictions on the import of Myanmar mines. Market participants are more optimistic about the price of medium and heavy rare earths. Recently, the number of inquiries has increased, and most of the holders hold the mentality of cherishing and selling, and the transaction is OK. Judging from the current market feedback, due to the limited import time of rare earth mines in Myanmar, the production of medium and heavy rare earths may be reduced.
The first rare earth indicators were announced in 2019, down 18% from the same period in 2018.
On Friday, the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a notice issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources of the first batch of total control plans for the mining and smelting separation of rare earths in 2019. The first batch of targets in 2019 were determined at 50 per cent of the total target for 2018, at 60000 tons and 57500 tons, respectively, which was 18 per cent lower than the total target for the same period in 2018. (total mineral products 60000 tons, a decrease of 13500 tons; However, the second batch, depending on demand and the use of indicators, will be issued by the end of June 2019, taking into account market demand and the implementation of the groups.
The downgrade in the domestic rare earth mine index over the same period, coupled with the risk of interruption of rare earth ore imports in Myanmar, the news should be a positive factor for the market, which has given a strong boost to the recent price of medium and heavy rare earths, led by dysprosium and terbium. The market hoarding and receiving enthusiasm, especially dysprosium oxide prices rising rapidly, supported by optimistic expectations, dysprosium terbium products are expected to continue to rise until mid-May.
In 2018, China's small metal market was deeply affected by factors such as regular supervision of environmental protection, poor activity, cautious investment speculators entering the market, and so on. Indium germanium rose and then fell, gallium and tellurium high and then stalemate, selenium rushed high and then fell back, antimony performance was flat. In 2019, the residual temperature of China's environmental protection policy is still there, and the trade cloud is still there. The space geometry of domestic small metal enterprises, the extent to which 5G commercial use will stimulate the downstream demand of all kinds of small metals, and where will the small metal market eventually go? Invite you to get together "2019 SMM small Metal Industry Summit", together to see the sun!
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